ࡱ> uwt@ oNbjbjצצ ,hFn```````t84$,tGI\\4HHHHHHH$JR9MH`H``4IO O O ``HO HO O R @``BP j]AH$I0GIAMM<Btt````M`BxO 6HHttD ^ttUSM STEM Symposium College Park, MD April 22, 2009 15-20 min. Education and ProsperityThe Chicken or the Egg? Thank you for that very generous introduction. Frankly, I hardly recognized myself. I am reminded of my first day on the faculty at Princeton when, after having spent my entire career in industry and government, I had been invited to deliver the welcoming lecture to the incoming freshman engineers. As the dean was making his opening remarks, I was busily flipping through my notes, not paying much attention to what he was saying until suddenly I heard him remark, And now we will hear from Professor Augustine. For just a minute and this is true the thought went through my mind, Gee, what a coincidence. They have some guy here by the same name as me! I appreciate the invitation to speak with you today. All the planets seem to have aligned for our statewith Brit Kirwans extraordinary leadership following on the remarkable progress made under Don Langenbergs aegis; with strongly led institutions of higher learning throughout the state, with a governor whose commitment to education is unparalleled; with a new federal Secretary of Education, Arne Duncan, who is committed to educational excellence for all; Jim Lyons, Sec. Ed. MD and with our states secret education weapon, Nancy Grasmick...not to mention the wonderful support being given by the NSF and DoE and people like June Streckfus. Our states universities, like those throughout the nation, will need to play a greatly expanded role if America is to prosper and Americans are going to compete for jobs in the 21st century. Not only are universities an almost exclusive source of professionally educated talent, they are increasingly becoming the predominant source of new knowledge derived through scientific researchsince much of industry has abandoned that playing field due to the very real, if misguided, short-term pressures of the financial markets. These, education and knowledge, together with an environment that promotes innovation, are the keys to prosperity in the 21st century. Today, Maryland ranks first among the 50 states in the fraction of professional and technical workers in its workforce. We rank fifth in the fraction of the states population between 25 and 44 years old who hold at least a bachelors degree. And I am sure everyone in this audience has seen plots for both states and countries that show a strong correlation between jobs and education. The question arises, do degrees create jobsor do jobs permit their beneficiaries to obtain degrees? I have thus chosen as the title for my remarks today: Education and Prosperity: The Chicken or the Egg? An appropriate title for a luncheon address! The answer is both. This is analogous to what I was told years ago when I first entered the government from the business world. It was explained to me that in business its dog-eat-dog, whereas in government it is exactly the opposite! What this implies is that there is a job-prosperity spirala highly coupled, highly leveraged spiralsuch that the going-up can be self-reinforcing and exhilaratingand the going-down is disastrous and dispiriting. Whatever the case, the idea is to teach that chicken to lay golden eggs...and when it comes to prosperity, those golden eggs take the form of a four-letter word: jobs. I would thus like to discuss the outlook for Americans to compete for jobs in the burgeoning global economy of the 21st century. I will draw heavily on the results of a study conducted jointly by the National Academy of Science, the National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine that became known as the Gathering Storm study after the first name in its title. There were twenty of us participated in the study and our work was critiqued by 32 anonymous independent reviewers. Dan Mote and Nancy Grasmick were among my colleagues on the study. Incidentally, our implementation strategy is to infiltrate President Obamas cabinet with our members: thus far we have the Secretary of Defense and Secretary of Energy in place! The ability to create jobs for Americans turns out to be closely related to our nations prowess in science and engineering. Only four percent of our workforce is comprised of scientists and engineers but this small fraction vastly disproportionately creates jobs for the other ninety-six percent. Now, in the spirit of full disclosure, I should confess that I am an engineerone of those folks who designed your computer so that when you want to turn it off, you have to click on start. It makes sense to me but it does create a lot of road-kill on the information highway! A number of studies have found that between 50 and 85 percent of the United States growth in Gross Domestic Product during the past half-century can be attributed to scientific and engineering achievements. This has not gone unnoticed by the leaders of other countries, such as China where eight of their top nine leaders are engineers. In contrast, more members of the U.S. House of Representatives list themselves as actors and entertainers than as engineers. But let me begin at the beginning. My geologist friends tell me that something over 200 million years ago many of what today are the earths major continents were joined together in a single supercontinent known as Gondwanaland. It included, in part, what is now South America, Africa, Australia, Antarctica, Arabia and the Indian Peninsula. Over time, these land masses slowly drifted apart, with their influence on each other correspondingly diminishing. Then, according to my economist friends, in just the last few decades, all those bodies suddenly came crashing back together again. As Tom Friedman put it in his remarkable book, The World is Flat, Globalization has accidentally made Beijing, Bangalore and Bethesda next door neighbors. This trend has been called The Death of Distance by Frances Cairncross writing in The Economist. The Death of Distance addresses the phenomenon where parties to many transactions no longer need to be in close physical proximity to one another. That is, distance no longer matters: candidates for many jobs are now to be found around the globe and these candidates are just a mouse click away. As author Clyde Prestowitz pointed out, three billion would-be capitalists entered the global job market following the restructuring of many of the worlds political systems that occurred late in the last century. And far fewer jobs are safe than many might think. Most citizens paid little attention when the job losses were confined to assembly workers. But the trend soon migrated to writing software, back-office administrative work, and, more recently, to professional pursuits such as medicine, engineering, accounting, banking and architecture. If history teaches us any lesson it is that no nation has an innate right to greatness. Nations that take their technological leadership for granted are particularly vulnerable in this fast-forward world. Typifying this latter tendency is a story told to me by Dan Goldin when he was Administrator of NASA. Dan was being excoriated by a critic of NASA who objected to the amount of money being spent on earth satellites. The skeptic had asked, Why do we need meteorological satellites? we have the Weather Channel. So how are we going to compete in a world where others are willing to work, and work hard, for a fraction of the wages upon which our standard of living is built? The answer of the National Academies committee along with many others is that our competitive edge will have to be our ability to innovate. That is, it will depend upon our ability to discover new knowledge through cutting-edge scientific research; to transform that knowledge into new products and services through engineering prowess; and to be first-to-market through extraordinary entrepreneurship. A prime driver in this new knowledge economy will thus be the education of the populace and especially of a cadre of individuals who can propel innovation in science and engineering. Alan Greenspan has said that If you dont solve (the Kindergarten through 12th grade education problem), nothing else is going to matter all that much. America has some outstanding schools, some outstanding teachers and some outstanding students but overall, at least by global standards, we are failing. In international tests in math and science, U.S. students invariably rank near the bottom of the global class. In Maryland, thanks to the leadership of Nancy Grasmick, we have reason to be proud...but we have an enormous amount of work remaining...particularly for the financially less well-off citizens of our state, a group which includes a disproportionate number of our citizens from minority groups. The situation is even more disconcerting with regard to human capital. Our universities continue to be the best in the world; however, two-thirds of their graduates in engineering are non-U.S. citizens. Part of the reason for this is that our K-12 system, on average, is, well, abysmalparticularly in the critical fields of math and science. The most recent international student test results were summarized in the media as indicating stagnation in science but a jump ahead in fourth grade mathematics. Putting aside the fact that few corporations hire fourth-graders, the media neglected to take note of the fact that at the rate at which we jumped ahead, it will take another 85 years simply to catch up with the children of Hong Kongassuming, of course, that they do not improve in the meantime. In Americas schools 69 percent of 5th- 8th grade students are taught math by teachers who possess neither a degree nor a certificate in math. Fully 93 percent of students are taught physical sciences by teachers with neither a degree nor a certificate in the physical sciences. In fact, over half of the nations science teachers have not had a single college course in the field they teach. At the University of North Carolina, President Erskine Bowles, in his inaugural address, remarked, Think about this: in the past 4 years, our 15 schools of education at the University of North Carolina turned out a grand total of three physics teachers. Three. And be assured that North Carolina is not alone in this regard. Fortunately, Brit Kirwan has committed to do something about this in Maryland...and this meeting is evidence of that. And as a nation we seem bent upon fooling ourselves: we impose standardsan absolutely essential step to improvementbut then dumb-down our standards to make us look good in a race to the bottom. The state that ranks first in the percentage of students meeting its standards is in last place in the percent meeting the national standards. Heaven knows where it would finish with international standards. This whole notion reminds me of the great philosopher, Charlie Brown, who under the watchful eye of his peripatetic friend, Lucy, is practicing archery by shooting arrows at a fence. Launching an arrow, Charlie Brown dashes to the fence, pulls a piece of chalk from his pocket, and draws a target around the point where the projectile has impacted, exclaiming, Bulls eye, again! Needless to say, Lucy goes ballistic, saying he will never improve by practicing that way. Bill Gates has summarized the situation, saying, When I compare our high schools to what I see when Im traveling abroad, Im terrified for our workforce of tomorrow. Turning to the supply of scientists and engineers, one finds that the production of citizen-scientists and engineers is proving particularly challenging: During the past two decades, part of an era that has been described as technologys greatest period of accomplishment, the number of engineers, mathematicians and physical scientists graduating in the U.S. with bachelors degrees actually declined by over 20 percent until a recent up-tick, propelled mostly by an increase in foreign students. This contrasts with a growth in the production of lawyers of 20 percent and Masters in Business Administration of 120 percent during the same period. The number of engineering doctorates awarded by U.S. universities to U.S. citizens dropped 34 percent in the past decade. Of the three undergraduate universities whose graduates receive the most PhDs from U.S. universities in science or engineering, two are in China and one is in Korea. The U.S. now ranks 60th among all nations and 17th among developed nations in the fraction of college graduates who receive their degrees in science or engineering. And China is already graduating more English-speaking engineers than we are in the U.S. Ironically, The Washington Post, in a recent article on how to get good grades in college, advised, Dont study engineering. Speaking to a group of the nations political leaders in our nations capital, Jeff Immelt, CEO of General Electric, observed: We had more sports-exercise majors graduate than electrical engineering graduates last year. If you want to become the massage capital of the world, youre well on your way. In most developing countries careers in science and engineering are highly regarded by young people. George Heilmeier, the former Director of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency e-mailed me while on a recent trip saying that when he is in Russia he likes to go to the movies, and he went on to explain that, In Russia, the engineer always gets the girl. (Actually, I met my wife when I was in engineering school she tells me the odds were good, but the goods were odd.) Which brings us to a more serious problem: women receive only 20% of the engineering bachelors degrees in the U.S. and 17% of the engineering doctorates awarded by U.S. universities. Members of minority groups receive even lesser shares of science and engineering degrees. For example, African Americans and Hispanics, separately making up about 12% of the total U.S. population, each receive fewer than 5% of the bachelors and doctorates awarded in these fields (recently there were some encouraging signs of an up-turn however, it is far too early to begin celebrating). The truth is that Americas science and engineering enterprise would scarcely function without its foreign-born contributors. Fifty-two percent of the PhDs in the U.S. science and engineering workforce under 45 years of age considered by many to be the most productive yearsare foreign born. Yahoo co-founder, Jerry Yang, reminds us that Yahoo would not be an American company today if the United States had not welcomed my family and me almost thirty years ago. The global balance of power in science and engineering can, of course, tip very rapidly. Craig Barrett, the former Chairman of Intel and a member of the National Academies committee, pointed out that 90 percent of the firms revenues on December 31 are derived from products that did not even exist on January 1 of that same year. The National Academies Gathering Storm report on competitiveness laid out a plan of 20 specific actions to help keep the United States competitive. These included a program to produce more math and science teachers and a doubling of the nations investment in basic research. I suppose one could say that much was accomplished in the first two years after the Academies report was released. For example, a new research university was launched with an opening day endowment of $10 billion, equal to what it took MIT 142 years to accumulate. The following year, over 200,000 students studied abroad, mostly in the fields of science and engineering, often under government-provided scholarships. Government investment in nondefense R&D increased by 25 percent. A multi-year initiative was accelerated to make the country a global nanotechnology hub. The worlds most powerful particle accelerator began operation. The President ordered that $3B be added to the science budget. And a high-level commission conducted a follow-up to the Gathering Storm study with the specific objective of creating jobs at home. The problem is that these steps were taken not by the United States but, rather, by Saudi Arabia, China, the U.K., India, Switzerland, Russia and Australia, respectively. So what about the United States? President Bush supported the key elements of the National Academies plan in his State of the Union address. The essence of the plan was authorized by an 88 to 8 vote in the U.S. Senate and 397 to 20 in the House of Representatives this in an election year. However, due partly to an avalanche of 9,800 earmarks, exacerbated by what can perhaps best be characterized as a system failure, the omnibus budget act that actually provides the funds to implement programs, failed to address America's competitiveness in any meaningful way. But then a remarkable thing happenedunexplainable to a non-economist like myself: the economy collapsed and this made huge sums of money available. Thanks to the strong support of President Obama, some of this money has been allocated to implementing the National Academies recommendations. Now all we have to do is sustain that commitment for another 20 years or so...and make certain that we spend wisely the resources with which we have been entrusted. Todays young adult generation for the first time in our nations history is less well-educated than their parents. And 80 percent of todays parents believe, also probably for the first time in history, that their children will have a lower standard of living than their own generation. This is a time of great opportunity in STEM education. It is also a time of high stakes. The very best efforts of each of us will be needed. Thank you.     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